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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has begun the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his opening seven appearances in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Naturally, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the prize so quickly into the term.

Firstly, the total of conversions he has thus far netted - and, of similar importance, the number and quality of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the modest opening his regular challengers for the award have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a top-flight footballer has traditionally converted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to find the net than every other footballer.

Indeed, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than anyone else in the league, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this term, a dozen more than every other footballer.

Interestingly, this is not especially surprising for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this point in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

However, what's unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that attackers have typically netted the efforts he's registered at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

In short, the opportunities he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the beginning of last season.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so powerfully is, as mentioned above, typical for Haaland. Following seven matches last season he had scored 10 goals - a quartet more than anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the Etihad attacker.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this stage last season.

Actually this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the eleven leading goalscorers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the remaining ten footballers collectively so far.

Whether due to fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - extended transfer dramas in a specific forward's circumstances or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

Even as Haaland seems the clear favourite for the Premier League scoring title, what about the European top scorer prize that is awarded to the player with the most goals in the continent's elite divisions?

That contest is considerably more open at this early stage because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The reality Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the three players despite not attempting any spot-kicks renders him the likely winner.

Yet given that Kane and Mbappe are two of the best converters in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the race is certainly on.