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The respite resulting from the ceasefire in Gaza is profound. Across Israel, the liberation of captives held alive has resulted in widespread elation. Throughout Gaza and the West Bank, festivities have commenced as up to 2,000 Palestinian prisoners start to be released – even as anguish lingers due to uncertainty about who is being freed and where they will be sent. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, residents can at last go back to search the debris for the bodies of an approximated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Ceasefire Emergence Contrary to Prior Uncertainty

Just three weeks ago, the chance of a ceasefire appeared remote. Yet it has taken effect, and on Monday Donald Trump journeyed from Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he joined a high-level peace conference of over 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative initiated there is set to advance at a meeting in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, did make this deal come to fruition – regardless of, not owing to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Dreams of Independence Moderated by Previous Experiences

Hopes that the deal represents the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, considering historical precedent, slightly idealistic. It offers no clear path to self-rule for Palestinians and endangers splitting, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the utter devastation this war has produced. The omission of any timeline for Palestinian autonomy in Mr Trump’s plan gives the lie to vainglorious mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “historic dawn” of a “age of abundance”.

The American leader could not help himself sowing division and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a moment of ease – with the liberation of detainees, halt in fighting and restart of aid – he opted to reframe it as a morality play in which he solely reinstated Israel’s honor after supposed disloyalty by former US presidents Obama and Biden. This despite the Biden administration previously having undertaken a similar deal: a truce linked to humanitarian access and future negotiations.

Meaningful Agency Essential for Sustainable Agreement

A plan that withholds one side genuine autonomy cannot yield legitimate peace. The truce and humanitarian convoys are to be welcomed. But this is not currently diplomatic advancement. Without processes guaranteeing Palestinian engagement and command over their own organizations, any deal risks perpetuating oppression under the language of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Rebuilding Obstacles

Gaza’s people urgently require relief assistance – and nutrition and medication must be the initial concern. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Within 60 million tonnes of wreckage, Palestinians need support restoring dwellings, schools, healthcare facilities, religious buildings and other establishments devastated by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to thrive, funding must arrive promptly and security gaps be filled.

Like a large portion of Donald Trump's diplomatic proposal, references to an international stabilisation force and a recommended “board of peace” are disturbingly unclear.

International Support and Prospective Outcomes

Strong global backing for the Palestinian leadership, permitting it to succeed Hamas, is perhaps the most promising possibility. The immense hardship of the recent period means the humanitarian imperative for a settlement to the conflict is potentially more pressing than ever. But while the ceasefire, the repatriation of the captives and pledge by Hamas to “demilitarise” Gaza should be acknowledged as favorable developments, Donald Trump's track record offers minimal cause to believe he will fulfill – or feel bound to attempt. Immediate respite does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been advanced.