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A looming political storm over conscripting Haredi men into the Israeli army is threatening to undermine the administration and dividing the state.

Popular sentiment on the matter has shifted dramatically in Israel following two years of war, and this is now perhaps the most volatile political risk facing Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Judicial Conflict

Lawmakers are currently considering a proposal to terminate the exemption granted to yeshiva scholars engaged in full-time religious study, established when the modern Israel was declared in 1948.

That exemption was declared unconstitutional by Israel's High Court of Justice almost 20 years ago. Stopgap solutions to maintain it were officially terminated by the bench last year, compelling the cabinet to begin drafting the Haredi sector.

Some 24,000 enlistment orders were issued last year, but just approximately 1,200 Haredi conscripts enlisted, according to defense officials given to lawmakers.

Friction Boil Over Onto the Streets

Friction is spilling onto the streets, with elected officials now debating a new legislative proposal to compel ultra-Orthodox men into national service in the same way as other Jewish citizens.

A pair of ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were targeted this month by radical elements, who are furious with the Knesset's deliberations of the draft legislation.

And last week, a specialized force had to extract Military Police officers who were targeted by a sizeable mob of ultra-Orthodox protesters as they attempted to detain a suspected draft-evader.

These arrests have prompted the establishment of a new messaging system named "Emergency Alert" to rapidly disseminate information through Haredi neighborhoods and mobilize demonstrators to block enforcement from happening.

"Israel is a Jewish nation," said an activist. "You can't fight against the Jewish faith in a Jewish state. It is a contradiction."

An Environment Set Aside

Yet the transformations affecting Israel have not reached the confines of the religious seminary in a Haredi stronghold, an Haredi enclave on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

Inside the classroom, scholars sit in pairs to analyze Jewish law, their brightly coloured school notebooks popping against the rows of light-colored shirts and small black kippahs.

"Visit in the early hours, and you will see half the guys are studying Torah," the head of the yeshiva, Rabbi Tzemach Mazuz, said. "Via dedicated learning, we safeguard the soldiers in the field. This is how we contribute."

The community holds that unceasing devotion and Torah learning defend Israel's armed forces, and are as vital to its military success as its advanced weaponry. That belief was acknowledged by the nation's leaders in the past, he said, but he acknowledged that public attitudes are shifting.

Growing Popular Demand

This religious sector has grown substantially its percentage of the country's people over the last seventy years, and now represents around one in seven. A policy that originated as an deferment for a small number of Torah scholars evolved into, by the start of the Gaza war, a group of tens of thousands of men not subject to the national service.

Opinion polls show backing for ending the exemption is growing. A poll in July found that a large majority of the broader Jewish public - even almost three-quarters in the Prime Minister's political base - supported sanctions for those who ignored a draft order, with a clear majority in supporting cutting state subsidies, travel documents, or the electoral participation.

"It makes me feel there are citizens who are part of this nation without serving," one military member in Tel Aviv said.

"It is my belief, however religious you are, [it] should be an reason not to fulfill your duty to your country," said a Tel Aviv resident. "Being a native, I find it quite ridiculous that you want to avoid service just to study Torah all day."

Voices from Inside the Community

Advocacy of broadening conscription is also coming from traditional Jews outside the ultra-Orthodox sector, like a Bnei Brak inhabitant, who lives near the seminary and points to religious Zionists who do perform national service while also engaging in religious study.

"It makes me angry that ultra-Orthodox people don't serve in the army," she said. "It is unjust. I am also committed to the Jewish law, but there's a teaching in Jewish tradition - 'Safra and Saifa' – it means the scripture and the guns together. That's the way forward, until the arrival of peace."

The resident manages a local tribute in her city to fallen servicemen, both from all backgrounds, who were fallen in war. Rows of images {